16 - Sputnik international news-Russia
Turkish-Greek Escalation Stems From Sovereignty Issues
Rather Than Hydrocarbons’ Control
MOSCOW, August 27, 2020 (Sputnik) - The Turkish-Greek escalation that reached a
boiling point this month is sparked by their sovereignty issues, which have been
simmering for a long time, rather than the actual control over hydrocarbons’ reserves in
the Mediterranean, experts told Sputnik.
The tensions between Athens and Ankara escalated earlier in August after Turkey's
Oruc Reis research vessel began exploration drilling in the Greek-claimed waters in the
eastern Mediterranean. Greece considers this territory to be its exclusive economic
zone, has mobilized its armed forces to high alert, and vowed to protect its sovereign
rights by all necessary means.
The row has reached a dangerous point when both states have started to hold military
drills in the contested maritime area. This week, Greece alongside Cyprus, France and
Italy held a joint military exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the so-called
Quartet Cooperation Initiative (QUAD), while the navies of Turkey and the United
States have conducted joint drills in the same area.
CONTROL OVER NATURAL RESOURCES DRIVES UP HISTORIC TENSIONS
The Turkish-Greek relations have been shadowed by the disputes for years, but the
discovery of hydrocarbon reserves in the maritime zone, claimed by both states, have
escalated the tensions, bringing the historic conflict back into the spotlight, Dr. Zenonas
Tziarras, the researcher with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Cyprus Centre,
told Sputnik.
"The biggest problem in the area is not energy resources, but traditional sovereignty
issues pertaining to maritime zones. The discovery of hydrocarbons over the past years
exacerbated these problems given that control over maritime space sometimes entails
control over natural resources as well, among other things. At least since the early
2010s," Tziarras said.
Turkey seeks to expand its control over maritime areas and natural resources through its
"openly revisionist foreign policy," designed to elevate the country to the status of great
power, the researcher noted.
"The latest crisis is only one episode in a long series of episodes stirred by problematic
relations and unresolved issues. The efforts for de-escalating this crisis might be
successful sooner or later. However, the core of the problem will not go away unless
gunboat diplomacy, especially by Turkey, is abandoned and the two countries engage in
dialogue to resolve their bilateral issues. Without a breakthrough in this respect, more
crises will follow," Tziarras said.
COULD ESCALATION SPILL OVER INTO OPEN MILITARY CONFLICT?
After Greece and Turkey have simultaneously launched military drills in the eastern
Mediterranean, some have expressed fears that an open military confrontation between
two NATO allies could happen by accident or deliberately.
"There remains the small possibility of an accident that would lead to confrontation and
also to the now unpredictable character of President Erdogan. Truly, Erdogan, after the
failed attempt of 2016 to assassinate him, has become another man determined to take
incredible risks that he would have never taken before July 2016," Prof. Dimitri
Kitsikis, an expert in the Turkish-Greek relations, told Sputnik.
However, "there is no intention whatsoever neither from Turkey nor from Greece to go
to war in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean," Kitsikis, who serves as the professor
emeritus with the University of Ottawa’s History Department, noted.
The PRIO researcher is in agreement with Kitsikis that both Turkey and Greece do not
seek a military confrontation.
"The two countries do not want a military confrontation. However, when there are such
tensions and military-naval mobilization, the possibility of an accident or a
miscalculation is always a possibility, especially if the crisis is prolonged and the
diplomatic efforts for de-escalation take a long time or are unsuccessful," Tziarras said.
The rising tensions between Athens and Ankara negatively impact the unity with
NATO, the expert noted.
"The potential of a conflict between Greece and Turkey has always been a concern for
NATO and the United States. For this reason, they have tried in the past to keep the
peace between the two countries. Any crisis between Greece and Turkey hinders
NATO's unity, regional cohesion and interests. Although Germany and the EU are
playing a primary mediation role in de-escalating the crisis, the US and NATO are also
believed to be trying to defuse tensions and prevent further escalation," Tziarras
underlined.
As for NATO's role in efforts to deescalate the tensions, NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg has said that he regularly maintains contact with both Turkey and Greece.
FEARS OVER LOCAL CONFLICT BECOMING INTERNATIONAL
France decision to send naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean, which was
welcomed by Greece, may add to tensions in the region, Panayotis Tsakonas, a
professor of security studies at the University of Athens and the head of the Program on
Security at Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), told
Sputnik.
"By implication, France has not been hesitant in supporting Greece in its conflict with
Turkey by sending a strong message to Turkey — through the mobilization of its fleet
— that this time Turkey went it too far. However, a note of caution should be added
here — although Greece welcomes France's initiative aiming at deterring any further
Turkish aggression this may also add up to an already heavily militarized region where
the possibility of an accident is high," Tsakonas said.
The expert also mentioned that Paris and Ankara have contradicting interests not only in
the Eastern Mediterranean sea but also in Africa, adding that French President
Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have "personal
antipathy."
"Based on the aforementioned reasons for France's military engagement in the region I
strongly doubt there will be any other country willing to follow suit," Tsakonas added.
When addressing the joint response by the European Union to Turkey over Ankara’s
actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, the expert said that France and Germany do not
"share the same views on how best to deal with Turkey."
"France is more in favor of punishing Erdogan's aggressiveness through the adoption of
direct punitive measures, i.e. sanctions while Germany — which now runs the EU
Presidency — is more interested in not letting Turkey further distancing itself from the
EU promoting thus Turkey's engagement with the EU," Tsakonas said.
At the same time, the professor noted that NATO, unsurprisingly, is much more
fragmented and divided over the issue with Turkey.
"Indeed despite a series of strategic divides between Turkey and its NATO allies, the
Atlantic Alliance is expected to remain a passive observer with regard to Turkey's
behavior vis-a-vis Greece, another NATO member, given that for NATO Turkey
remains too big, powerful and strategically important to allow for an open
confrontation," Tsakonas said.
The expert added that the current situation, if it is left unchecked, would have certain
negative effects on the stability at the EU’s southern border and said that the EU and the
United States should reset their relationship with Turkey "with a new one based on a
balanced mixture of carrots and sticks and/or benefits and obligations" as soon as
possible.